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In or out?

...on serious topics that don't fit anywhere else at present.
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Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3761 Post by Alan H » September 14th, 2018, 8:30 pm

Latest post of the previous page:

Crash-out chaos is a decoy. Beware blind Brexit
Dominic Raab has a column in the Telegraph saying “we need not be afraid of a no-deal Brexit”, while also saying it would “not be a walk in the park” and warning, among other things, that “extra checks at the EU border would bring delays for business”. The government’s latest batch of 28 contingency plans, out today, will cover things such as mobile phone roaming changes (which the EU scrapped) and environmental standards.
Raab's walk in the park will be through lush green pastures with grazing unicorns, won't it?
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

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Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3762 Post by Alan H » September 15th, 2018, 6:28 pm

With a Brexit deal in sight, Britain is entering a no man’s land
Nick Clegg
When is a deal a deal and no deal at the same time? In the Brexit negotiations. In fact, the way in which the talks between the UK and the EU were organised propels the process to one overwhelmingly likely outcome: an agreement on how to leave the EU, with no binding agreement on how to live outside the bloc. The former — as the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier made clear this week — is within touching distance. But the latter remains as distant as ever.

This straightforward fact appears to have been forgotten by those who used the summer to speculate about the perils of a “no-deal” outcome. The UK government has sought to dignify its hopelessly fudged Chequers plan by comparing it to the ructions of a no-deal Brexit. Ardent Conservative Brexiters, meanwhile, have sought to claim that no deal would be a perfectly manageable outcome.

Neither has admitted to the British people that under all scenarios, once a detailed plan for Britain’s departure from the EU is agreed, Britain will be floating outside the bloc without any legally agreed future. It will be similar to leaving a house and throwing away the keys, with no idea where to stay next. As this becomes more obvious, the growing dissent in parliament and the country will rise.

None of this should be a surprise. It is spelt out clearly in Article 50 of the EU treaties. The only legally binding component of any deal will be related to the “arrangements for its [the exiting state] withdrawal” (money, EU citizens rights and the Irish border) while the framework for the future relationship will be subject to a non-binding political statement. The latest wheeze in Brussels is to turn the latter into a “solemn declaration” — as if portentous language can make up for the lack of legal clarity.

Theresa May knew this from the outset. Her government did nothing to try to change the terms of the negotiation. Crucially, this interpretation of Article 50 remains the guiding instruction to Mr Barnier and his negotiating team. He has little incentive to engage in detail with Britain’s Chequers plan, or indeed any other rival version of the future. It is not his job. As far as he is concerned, he has been asked to arrange for an orderly and legally sound departure of the UK from the EU.

No wonder Mr Barnier tends to focus most on the first part of that task — especially the unresolved issue of the Northern Irish border — and remain aloof about the latter. When I recently suggested to one of the key EU negotiators that the political declaration was not worth the paper it is written on, they did not demur.

The British political and media establishment has always underestimated the centrality of law to the EU. As Europe’s only democracy without a written constitution, British decision makers assume that a smidgen of fudge and old fashioned muddling through will do the trick. But the EU has hard legal contours that are not susceptible to the kind of nudge and wink dealmaking of Westminster tea rooms.

This is the reason why — if unwittingly — Mr Barnier has become an ally of sorts to Jacob Rees-Mogg and other Brexit fundamentalists. They, too, simply want to see the UK leave the EU and regard any commitments about the future as a constraint on their hopes for a buccaneering Britain scouring the planet for new (if economically insignificant) trade deals.

More thoughtful European leaders are starting to discern the dangers of an unresolved Brexit in which Britain leaves the EU, but all the negotiation about the future is still left to do. French president Emmanuel Macron recently warned against the dangers of a “ blind Brexit ”. He is right to be worried. The prospect of Brexit weeping like a running sore for years to come will drain the EU of the political capital it needs to focus on other issues.

In other words, even as the warning signs flash about the dangers of an exit shorn of a detailed plan for the future, the Brexit conveyor belt continues to roll. It is too late to redesign the parameters of the talks and neither side possesses the will or the wherewithal to broker a better conclusion. It is testament to the frenzy unleashed by Brexit that Britain, home to one of the world’s greatest democracies, should now be on the verge of willingly entering into a legal and political no man’s land.

The onus on MPs to save the government — and the country — from itself becomes bigger by the day. If parliament chooses to act, it is still not too late to give the country more time to choose a better future.
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

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Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3763 Post by Alan H » September 17th, 2018, 12:14 pm

What do the 'no deal' notices tell us about Brexit and health?
One of the EU’s strengths is in its collective decision-making powers, used to devise common regulations. Of course, no regulatory system is perfect, but on leaving the EU, the UK loses many of the trade-improving, burden-easing, and practice-refining benefits that come with economies of scale.

And, for the health sector, there are no clear counter-advantages. The EU regulations are a product of the member states’ views; the UK’s voice has been heard and expert research has been considered to create them. Thus, as highlighted by the UK’s notices, there is no clear motivation to do anything other than copy and paste them. But, as the EU has stated unambiguously, the UK’s fundamental change in status to a third country means that this will by no means equate to continuity.
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

User avatar
Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3764 Post by Alan H » September 18th, 2018, 1:17 pm

Quite a good summary of the current Tory clusterfuck that is Brexit:

Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

User avatar
Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3765 Post by Alan H » September 18th, 2018, 1:21 pm

This Brexit thingy is all going tickety-boo, isn't it? BMW to shut Mini factory for a month after Brexit day - Sky sources
Car giant BMW will shut its main British manufacturing factory immediately after Brexit day next year for several weeks, because of the rising risk of a "no-deal" divorce, Sky News has learned.

The famous Mini plant in Oxford will not produce cars for at least a month from 29 March 2019, as the German giant activates the next stage of its no-deal contingency plans.

During the referendum campaign a number of high profile Leave campaigners claimed that a great deal was inevitable because BMW would lobby German Chancellor Angela Merkel for one.

David Davis, who later went on to become Brexit secretary, claimed in Febraury 2016 that: "Within minutes of a vote for Brexit CEO's would be knocking down Chancellor Merkel's door demanding access to the British market."
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

User avatar
Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3766 Post by Alan H » September 18th, 2018, 2:28 pm

Liars, every single last one of them:
screenshot-tweetdeck.twitter.com-2018.09.18-14-25-10.png
screenshot-tweetdeck.twitter.com-2018.09.18-14-25-10.png (971.94 KiB) Viewed 13543 times
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

User avatar
Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3767 Post by Alan H » September 18th, 2018, 9:34 pm

Parliament has a ‘golden moment’ to halt Brexit before it’s too late
So this is the strategy I propose, along with many other parliamentarians and others who have been wrestling with these great issues and with whom I have been in a virtual committee of public safety in recent months.

First: Brexit can and must be stopped, democratically.

Second: this can and should be done by means of a people’s vote.

Third: it is the duty of all MPs who realise that Brexit is wrong to support the people’s vote and give their frank advice to their constituents on the right course to stay in the EU.

It is simple, straightforward, entirely achievable and I believe entirely legitimate. The question now is whether my colleagues in the House of Commons will seize their “golden moment” and act to give the people their say. History tells us that the consequences, should they fail, will be severe. As will be the judgment of history.
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

User avatar
Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3768 Post by Alan H » September 19th, 2018, 11:52 am

Rightwing thinktanks unveil radical plan for US-UK Brexit trade deal
The IFT/Cato Institute free trade deal recognises that its proposals are likely to be unpopular. “Health services would benefit from foreign competition, although we recognise any change to existing regulations would be extremely controversial,” it says.

It recommends testing the waters with foreign competition in education and legal services first.

The proposals are likely to meet fierce opposition from trade experts on the left. Nick Dearden, director of Global Justice Now, said: “The measures supported in this paper represent a free trade utopia, entirely divorced from economic reality. The authors view good government as ‘getting out of the way’ of business, and letting profit drive every aspect of our society. If carried out, these policies would destroy huge swathes of our economy, including farming, and they would lay waste to public services.”
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

User avatar
Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3769 Post by Alan H » September 19th, 2018, 10:54 pm

This Brexit thingy is all going tickety-boo, isn't it? EU airports unable to cope with safety risks of 'no-deal' Brexit, leaked memo reveals
European airports have privately warned that a "no-deal" Brexit would cause "major disruption and heightened safety risks", Sky News has learned.

At least six million passengers on UK-originating flights transferring in the continent would have to group through extra security and screening before embarking on their second journey
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

User avatar
Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3770 Post by Alan H » September 20th, 2018, 12:00 pm

I bet Tories and Brexiters are wetting themselves at the prospect: Liam Fox is plotting to scrap EU food standards to win a Brexit trade deal with Trump
Exclusive: Liam Fox is planning to scrap EU food standards using controversial "Henry the 8th" powers, multiple sources have told Business Insider.

The UK trade secretary wants to use government powers to rewrite UK food standards in order to strike a post-Brexit trade deal with the Trump administration.

Sources claim Fox wants to alter food standards through the Trade Bill. A government spokesperson denied the bill would be used to lower standards.

Labour accuses Fox of risking putting UK "farmers and food producers out of business."

The UK will need to lower its food standards to sign a comprehensive trade deal with the US.
How about you, coffee?
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

User avatar
Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3771 Post by Alan H » September 20th, 2018, 10:33 pm

This Brexit thingy is all going tickety-boo for the Tories, isn't it? Theresa May's Salzburg humiliation confirms that a full blown political crisis is coming
Theresa May’s problem is that she is fundamentally a decent, functional human being. She is not struck down with the Messiah complex. She does not lie easily or well.

So when she stands on stage at a press conference, her teeth gnashing, her eyes wide and wild, as if everything has gone utterly terribly wrong and she hasn’t got the first clue what she is going to do about it, then you can be absolutely sure it’s because everything has indeed gone utterly terribly wrong, and she hasn’t got the first clue what she is going to do about it.

She had been humiliated, and then she was forced to humiliate herself. She had thought this informal summit of EU leaders in Salzburg would be the final breakthrough on an exit deal from the European Union.

But there has been no breakthrough. There is still a chasm of empty space between her red lines and the European Union’s. The question of the Irish border appears unresolvable.

Either Northern Ireland stays in the single market and the customs union, or the whole of the UK does, or there is no deal. None of these options are satisfactory for the UK.

It is for this reason that pundits and politicians have spent much of 2018 predicting a full blown political crisis in the United Kingdom this autumn. And when the prime minister is sweating profusely, tripping over her words and chewing on her own gums as if lost on the way back from the dance tent at Glastonbury at 4am, well, it’s not unfair to conclude that that is exactly what is coming.
Pass the :popcorn: will you, coffee?
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

User avatar
Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3772 Post by Alan H » September 21st, 2018, 10:51 am

Theresa May's Brexit train wreck hits the buffers of reality:

Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

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animist
Posts: 6522
Joined: July 30th, 2010, 11:36 pm

Re: In or out?

#3773 Post by animist » September 21st, 2018, 11:00 am

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/09 ... ot-serious

so even Ian Dunt maybe overestimates the importance which we Brits, even Remainers, attach to the question of how the rest of the EU views UK domestic politics. They are effing sick of Brexit (despite the career openings which it apparently gave to youngish members of the EU bureaucracy two long years ago).

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Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3774 Post by Alan H » September 21st, 2018, 6:37 pm

Theresa May asked the EU to explain why they rejected her Chequers deal; they obliged: Theresa May's 'tough and uncompromising' approach got her Chequers Brexit plan rejected, says EU
The president of the European Council has hit back at Theresa May after the Prime Minister kicked-off over the rejection of her Chequers Brexit plan and demanded more "respect" in talks.

In a statement released on Friday evening Donald Tusk blamed in part Ms May's conduct for the rejection of her proposals, warning that EU leaders had responded to a "tough and in fact uncompromising" stance by the PM in the run-up to a key summit in Salzburg.

He added that the British government had known the EU was going to reject the proposals "in every detail" for weeks.
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

User avatar
Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3775 Post by Alan H » September 22nd, 2018, 11:05 am

Salzburg: How a chronic misreading has brought Brexit to the brink
In the game of Jenga, competitors build a tower of identical wooden bricks, creating a new layer each time by deftly removing one block from below and placing it delicately on top.

The higher the tower rises, the more unstable it becomes, and the more skill is required to extract each new brick without bringing the whole structure down.

This aptly describes Theresa May’s Brexit strategy. Salzburg may well prove to be the clumsily extricated brick.
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

User avatar
animist
Posts: 6522
Joined: July 30th, 2010, 11:36 pm

Re: In or out?

#3776 Post by animist » September 22nd, 2018, 12:12 pm

well, at least the implication, with only 188 days to go, that there will be no deal (or at least no general one - I imagine that EASA etc will be sorted out) does simplify a second referendum, were there to be one. That is because such a referendum will be, like the last one, binary. The problem about a new vote on a deal would be that there would be three options, which might well have necessitated not one but two votes

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Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3777 Post by Alan H » September 24th, 2018, 8:33 pm

Brexit is mortally wounded – it’s time to let it die
Despite the Conservative’s incompetence on the domestic front at least they have proved one thing; that there is no workable solution to Brexit that gives us what they promised.

That was the words of The New European editor Matt Kelly following the latest round of talks where even a watered-down Chequers proposal was knocked back by the union who remained characteristically stoic in Salzburg this week.

The pound plummeted as May delivered a speech saying the UK “cannot accept anything that does not respect the result of the referendum”, fully in the knowledge that the promises set forth in the referendum are, inevitably, undeliverable.

As Kelly said, “There is no workable solution to Brexit that gives us what they promised.

“Absolute sovereignty, total control of our borders, freedom from the European Court of Justice, continued frictionless access to our biggest trading partner and the ability to make independent trade deals with whomever we choose”.

And he could go on.

The list of undeliverable promises set forth in the referendum campaign that now lay dormant in the latest rounds of talks should leave people at either side of the debate aggrieved.

David Davis’s promise that there will be no downsides to Brexit has since been debunked on numerous occasions. Even by the man himself, once, when he claimed he always said the negotiations will be “tough, complex and at times confrontational”.

The debate around free movement also seems to have stalled despite many prominent Brexiteers saying it will end in March 2019. What was once a key sticking point for most Leavers has been watered down so much it is almost unrecognisable from the current agreement, and many new economic deals are being struck with relaxed immigration laws at the heart.

Notions of Britain taking back control of its fisheries, of money getting pumped into the NHS and of frictionless trade being maintained have also been scuppered, which begs the question; why are we still doing this?

Brexit is mortally wounded – it’s time to let it die.
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

User avatar
Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3778 Post by Alan H » September 26th, 2018, 9:20 pm

Our ration books will be blue, won't they, coffee? UK appoints food supplies minister amid fears of no-deal Brexit
The government has appointed a minister to oversee the protection of food supplies through the Brexit process amid rising concerns about the effect of a no-deal departure from the European Union.

The MP David Rutley, a former Asda and PepsiCo executive, was handed the brief at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs earlier this month.

Defra said that Rutley, who once ran home shopping and e-commerce businesses at Asda, was merely taking on responsibilities already held by other ministers. He said: “It is an honour to join the Defra ministerial team at such an important time. I am determined to ensure that we fully realise the opportunities of leaving the EU.”

Food industry insiders welcomed his appointment after warnings that delays of only half an hour at UK ports and the Irish border would risk one in 10 British firms going bankrupt.

One food industry business leader said: “The issue at the ports is a big threat. The UK always has been a net importer of food. If the ports don’t work then exporters will be struggling and importers will have a challenge too.”

The executive said that while some food manufacturers were already setting aside additional supplies, stockpiling was not possible for products with a short shelf life, such as milk or vegetables.
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

User avatar
Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3779 Post by Alan H » September 27th, 2018, 2:03 pm

New Brexit referendum better than no-deal, senior Tory MP Amber Rudd says
Amber Rudd has become the most senior Conservative to back a fresh referendum that could stop Brexit, rather than crashing out of the EU without a deal.

The former home secretary warned the UK was “in completely uncharted territory”, saying: “I think a ‘People’s Vote’ could be the result of an impasse.”

And, asked if she would back that vote if it was the only alternative to leaving with no agreement, she replied: “Is that preferable to a no-deal? Absolutely.”

The comments are the strongest evidence yet that moderate Tories are flexing their muscles to prevent Theresa May carrying out her threat to crash out of the EU if necessary.
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

User avatar
Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3780 Post by Alan H » September 27th, 2018, 5:55 pm

Brexiters failed to grasp significance of single market to EU, says Brussels chief
Brexiters have been left “flabbergasted” by the EU’s refusal to back down in divorce talks because the UK has never understood that the single market is seen as vital to the political, as well as economic, stability of the continent, according to the European commission’s vice-president.

Frans Timmermans also expressed the hope that the UK might yet change its mind on Brexit now it “has seen the facts”. There had been no intention to humiliate Theresa May at the recent Salzburg summit, he said.

But he added that the British prime minister had no reason to be surprised by the EU negotiating stance since “she had been told time and time again” by the chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, that her Chequers proposals were unacceptable.

His remarks, emphasising the threat to the EU’s integrity posed both by Brexit and by eastern European countries challenging liberal democratic values, underline the extent to which some senior European politicians are uninterested in a technical fix, seeing the talks as a battle to defend wider values.
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

User avatar
Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

Re: In or out?

#3781 Post by Alan H » September 27th, 2018, 7:05 pm

This Brexit thingy is all going tickety-boo, isn't it? No-deal Brexit 'would stop British farming exports for six months'
The National Farmers Union has warned of “catastrophic” consequences for the industry if there is no Brexit deal, after being warned by the EU that the UK faces a six-month wait to be certified as an approved third-country supplier.

This would be a major setback to the food and drink sector, where exports to the EU are worth £13.2bn a year.

The NFU says it has been told informally that although Britain is in complete regulatory alignment with the EU, if there is no deal, the same health checks countries such as China and the US undergo will apply to UK suppliers.

“What we are talking about in effect is a six-month trade embargo until such time we can get the product in, from that point we will face the European’s external tariff wall meaning we will be priced out of the market,” said the NFU’s director general, Terry Jones.

It has been told that 6,000 meat processing plants that export to the EU will have to undergo individual audits by British authorities.

These will then be checked by EU officials and then put to a standing veterinary committee for approval, a process that the NFU has calculated will take six months “at a conservative reading”.

These checks will also be conducted on any other companies supplying food and drink to the EU, including those exporting bottled water, honey, jam, dairy and other fresh foods.
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

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