GAME ON!

[thundril]

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/o ... ax-credits

[Nick]

Game on? Game over. The Lib Dems were stuffed at the last election. And therefore any Lib Dem protest now is fundamentally "undemocratic". Doesn't make it right, of course, but then I don't feel bound by LibDem rhetoric. Kindly explain to me why a situation which was fab in 2007 is now, somehow, fundamentally wicked? Or are we to realise, too late, it seems, that apparent "solutions" aren't solutions after all.....?

[Altfish]

The use of the HoL isn't right; but neither is bringing in poor bashing policies that were not mentioned in the manifesto and denied by Cameron before the election.

The nasty party have a clear majority but are now just proving why they cannot be trusted.

[Lord Muck oGentry]

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/o ... ax-credits

I'm no expert on the doings of the mighty in Westminster, but as I understand it the Parliament Act 1911 and the Salisbury Doctrine have been invoked.

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Geo ... /section/1

http://www.parliament.uk/site-informati ... y-doctrine

There is also the matter of Statutory Instruments:

http://www.parliament.uk/business/bills ... struments/

If this legislation is a SI then the 1911 Act does not apply: it covers only " bills".
Equally, the Salisbury Doctrine does not seem to apply:

In practice, it means that the Lords does not try to vote down at second or third reading, a Government Bill mentioned in an election manifesto.

I'm quite happy to accept correction from those who know better, but as things stand I cannot understand the Government's position.

[thundril]

The game's afoot. Whether Lib dem, Blairite, Plaid or SNP party grandees invoke this or that rule is interesting, but it's not really the point. The point is, the tax-credit clawback is shaping up to be Cameron's equivalent of St Maggie's Poll Tax.
One nasty-party tax too far for the fair-minded people of Britain.
If one tactic doesn't work, another one will be tried. Parliamentary manoeuvres, demos on the street, civil disobedience.
This isn't a party-political matter. It's about fair play.

[Nick]

The game's afoot. Whether Lib dem, Blairite, Plaid or SNP party grandees invoke this or that rule is interesting, but it's not really the point. The point is, the tax-credit clawback is shaping up to be Cameron's equivalent of St Maggie's Poll Tax.
One nasty-party tax too far for the fair-minded people of Britain.
If one tactic doesn't work, another one will be tried. Parliamentary manoeuvres, demos on the street, civil disobedience.
This isn't a party-political matter. It's about fair play.

Somewhere on TH, there's a post from me, saying that I don't think the Tories would impose the full 12 billion reduction on expenditure on tax credits. I was wrong; they did. At least they proposed it. I suspect that, as in so many aspects of life, news is not as good or as bad as first reported. I expect it to be mitigated somewhat. Could still be wrong, though.

As for whether this is a "poll-tax" moment. Hmmm... I doubt it. Because it is overshadowed by Labour's "Foot" moment. Never mind the sudden increase of Labour members. (The Lib Dems have had a sudden increase too.) The Labour increase is largely composed of those who were outside the political spectrum, being too idealistic, too far left, or (as you might expect me to say, too ignorant) to count. Labour have suffered a devastating Corbyn moment. Electorally, Labour is toast. The only people who don't realise that are the new ( as opposed to New) Labour Party and their fellow travellers. (Whom, in total, given the dire numbers voting Labour at the last election, are few).

Just who are people to vote for? Labour? Nope. Corbyn is not even supported by his own MP's. Lefty loons, certainly, but that is never going to be enough to give him a majority. Miliband tried relying on core lefty, deficit-denying support, and failed miserably. Corbyn needs waiverers, not frightened by lefty lunacy. Potential Tory voters. He's lost them, totally. Lib Dems? Not really. A grazed knee and they've gone home crying. Who's left? The SNP just hits Labour in Scotland, in England UKIP hits Labour as much as the Tories (it's not the middle classes who are squeezed out of jobs and subsidised homes by immigrants). And as far as tax credits go, I think there is a crucial difference between tax credits and the changes to the rates, which caused so much trouble: one was about asking for money from people whom (the electorate decided) couldn't afford it, but the current issue is about giving money to people whom (the electorate may well decide) don't deserve it. I'm not talking about justice, but the perspective of the electorate in electoral terms. They may think tax credits are good, (so long as they don't have to pay it,) but not singing the National Anthem is bad, or worse. That's democracy.

As for "civil disobedience", why is it justified if you are not able to extract money from other people? Like those on minimum wage? Why is it not justified when demands for payment, with menaces, up to and including imprisonment, are made against those who have worked hard for it, including those on minimum wage? It was "civil disobedience" in the 1970's which eventually propelled St Maggie into no. 10 in 1979. Though not in the way the protesters and strikers envisaged. Leaving Labour in the wilderness for 18 years. And even then, they only succeeded in gaining power by abandoning everything that Corbyn is now proposing. Labour is toast.

[thundril]

Of course most Tory loyalists will not approve of popular opposition to the tax-credit cuts. But democracy is not just about loyalty to this or that power-seeking club. (= political party)
Of course economic right-wingers are in general opposed to redistributive taxation. But there are limits, and the majority of Tories recognise that these limits are necessary, for reasons both humane and practical.
Of course, civil disobedience is not the immediate course of action for most Britons disgruntled by a bit of government policy. But when it happens, it happens big-time, and is very effective.
ISTM that Cameron has got himself into a bit of a pickle. He should have realised a while back that this policy was not a good one. He probably does realise it now, with Tory politicians both young and old speaking so strongly against it. Unfortunately, he is still in thrall to the deathly Westminser Village Idiots' game of seeing any change of mind as a 'u-turn' and a sign of weakness.
He has refused to listen to ordinary Tory voters, and to old hands, warning against this policy.
He has twisted every half-decent Tory's arm to get a Parliamentary party vote Ceacescu would have killed for (and probably did, quite often)
He has threatened to precipitate a constitutional crisis if the Lords oppose his policy.
Big mistake after big mistake.. Interesting times ahead

[Altfish]

Labour are a shambles and should be unelectable but the Tories are trying to change that

[thundril]

Labour are a shambles and should be unelectable but the Tories are trying to change that

So is Labour. At last something they can work together on

[animist]

If this legislation is a SI then the 1911 Act does not apply: it covers only " bills".
Equally, the Salisbury Doctrine does not seem to apply:

this implies that the proposal is indeed a SI (as it mentions "Regulations")

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/p ... 5-0003.htm

[animist]

Labour is toast.

indeed at present, but repeating this endlessly will not prevent changes in political fortunes, which tend to happen in unexpected ways; I have a hunch that JC may tire of his position, while the EU referendum could create all sorts of developments. Probably the tax credit controversy is not equivalent to the poll tax though. Even if it were, the poll tax (along with the Europe divisions among the Tories) helped get rid of Thatcher, not of the Tories themselves, who lasted another parliament

[thundril]

Game on? Game over.

Game over, my arse! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34631156

[Dave B]

Seems that there is money on Mr Biscuit saving one of his faces and sliding in some ammendments, to take some of the sting out, during his Autumn Review.

Of course, being a plotician he can't do the honest thing and admit it if all a SNAFU!

[Alan H]

Seems that there is money on Mr Biscuit saving one of his faces and sliding in some ammendments, to take some of the sting out, during his Autumn Review.

Of course, being a plotician he can't do the honest thing and admit it if all a SNAFU!

Only saw a bit of it but not sure I understand why it a) wasn't defeated completely and b) why it was so close. (However, I did see someone saying that the Tories flew in (at taxpayers' expense?) Lord Webber to bump up Tory numbers.

[thundril]

People are tired of the kind of school-playground nonsense-politics we've been fed the last couple of decades, where every politician has to obey the Party's press enforcer, fearing that any disagreements will be met with breathless reports of 'revolt within the (name your party) ranks', and any (God forbid) any changes of mind will be howled down as 'u-turns', and therefore signs of weakness.
Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters are trying to get away from the kind of rubbish.
With any luck, Cameron and/or Osborne might see the wisdom of supporting this change of tone. But I'm not holding my breath.
It is salutary to note that, whether it is Thatcher with the poll-tax, or Clinton with his sexual incontinence, it's not the initial mistake that brings down the powerful, it's their inability to admit that they have done anything wrong..

[thundril]

Only saw a bit of it but not sure I understand why it a) wasn't defeated completely and b) why it was so close.

The Tories have been doing a lot of threatening and arm-twisting around this. Threastening to flood the house with Tory life-peers to ensure a majority. Threatening to trigger a constitutional crisis that may mean an end of the cushy sinecures the Lords and Bishops enjoy. Threatening (I expect) to expose a selection of the dirty little secrets that keep power in the hands of the Establishment.
But when loyal Tories, from a newbie MP to an ex-Chancellor, are voicing serious doubts in public, the leadership really should pay some attention.

[Alan H]

Baroness Meacher in good form:

[thundril]

David Davis has just been a big tad disloyal to Cam/borne on R4. The cracks are widening.

[Altfish]

I notice that Boris has (by his standards) been fairly quiet on this issue. I think he is a big winner in the Tory Leader race

[Dave B]

I notice that Boris has (by his standards) been fairly quiet on this issue. I think he is a big winner in the Tory Leader race

Is he trying to be the "Soft Face" of Toryism (to the Cam/borne hard one) without actually rocking the boat?

Boris playing statesman?