The English, it is often said, lacking in language skills, have an unfortunate habit of shouting at foreigners when travelling abroad, assuming that by raising their voices and waving their arms, their needs will eventually be understood. This approach rarely works well. It tends to annoy those on the receiving end, while failing to assist mutual comprehension. Yet this, in sum, is what the hard Tory Brexiters have been reduced to as pressure grows to avoid a national “no-deal” catastrophe when the UK quits the EU next March.
Theresa May, who is nominally in charge of this process, is pursuing a slightly more subtle approach. Rather than rant and rave at Johnny Foreigner from the safety of Westminster’s isolationist redoubts, she has bravely ventured on to European soil. On Friday, she sat down to dinner with Emmanuel Macron, France’s president. Her cunning strategy, according to her Fleet Street supporters, is “divide and rule”. Except, in this instance, Britain is divided and Europe rules.
Macron may have wondered why the prime minister was there at all. He had made plain in advance that on no account would France do, say or promise anything that might undermine the united stance of the EU’s 27 remaining states, embodied in the maddeningly pernickety Michel Barnier. Macron was polite to his guest, of course, but like the nouvelle cuisine of which the French are proud, the political fare was lacking in substance and ultimately unsatisfying.
May’s cabinet colleagues, fanning out across the continent like Patton’s Third Army to advance her Chequers compromise, do not appear to have fared any better. Especially embarrassing are the efforts of Jeremy Hunt, the new foreign secretary. He gravely warned puzzled Europeans last week that Britain was heading for “no-deal by accident” by pushing itself off a cliff. The UK would not “blink first”, he added. Perhaps Hunt thinks he is Clint Eastwood. It matters not. On Brexit, this government has its eyes tight shut. It is blind to the consequences – and the waiting chasm. Blinking does not come into it.
What part of the EU’s unchanging position on the principles governing Britain’s future relationship with Europe does May’s government not understand? For two years or more, Barnier, the chief negotiator, firmly backed by 27 governments, has been telling London there can be no compromise and no fudge that weakens the integrity of the single market, pan-European customs and legal regulations and Europe’s borders. Yet May’s Chequers plan, seeking exceptional (and unworkable) arrangements, blithely ignores all that.
In case the European public did not appreciate what was at stake, or was taken in by chauvinistic Tory claims of EU vindictiveness and dogmatism, Barnier published an op-ed in 20 European newspapers last week. Amid Brexit’s baffling complexities, his concision and clarity were refreshing. He explained the EU’s justified fears about the impact of Brexit on Europe and why it cannot reasonably be expected to bow to May’s demands for special treatment:
“The UK knows well the benefits of the single market. It has contributed to shaping our rules over the last 45 years. And yet some UK proposals would undermine our single market, which is one of the EU’s biggest achievements. The UK wants to keep free movement of goods between us, but not of people and services. And it proposes to apply EU customs rules without being part of the EU’s legal order. The UK wants to take back sovereignty and control of its own laws, which we respect, but it cannot ask the EU to lose control of its borders and laws,” Barnier wrote.
There are many additional reasons to believe May’s Chequers plan is dead in the water. Both Tory Brexiters and Remainers dislike it. Opposition parties will not support it. It commands no majority in parliament or in the country, where backing for a second referendum is growing. May’s plan may not even survive the Conservative party conference in Birmingham next month. But she has no Plan B – unless she dreamed one up with some magical thinking on Lake Garda last week.
Face facts, Mrs May. The Europeans are not going to back down and shouting at them, cajoling and wheedling or trying to divide them will not work. The Brexit writing is on the wall for Britain. As Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor, suggests, a no-deal outcome would have disastrous consequences. Businesses, trade unions, foreign investors, carmakers, bankers, airlines, food suppliers and even M&S sandwich exporters all agree: this country, its Brexit-tainted economy already badly underperforming, simply cannot afford such a gross act of national self-harm.
Yet lacking a viable alternative, May is hurtling towards both a no-deal calamity and an ignominious end to her premiership. So forget Jacob Rees-Mogg, Iain Duncan Smith and other false tribunes of past island glories. There is now only one sensible, responsible course of action. As we have urged here before, May must stop the Brexit clock, call a time out and humbly ask the EU27 for a significant delay beyond March. This has been a harsh learning process for all concerned and it is as yet incomplete. The entire country needs a moment to pause, reflect and think afresh.