Latest post of the previous page:Nick at least seems to have trouble about me using words like "uncertain" or "temporary". So I will try to spell out how I see the two types of uncertainty which I mentioned in connexion with Brexit and its repercussions. Ninny, look away if you don't like long unpoetic posts
UNCERTAINTY 1. The referendum outcome has had some negative repercussions on the UK economy and cultural links with other countries, but so far these are minor and may settle down. We are currently in a situation resembling the "Phoney War" which characterised the start of World War 2, since all that's happened is a referendum plus a new government (this analogy with WW2 was made by the Chatham House lecturer, and I strongly advise everyone to watch this lecture, posted by Gottard the other week). The rest of the world is uncertain about Brexit in a rather nebulous way, since it does not know what Britain will do and when. The Article 50 invocation has not happened, and TMQ (The May Queen) has said it will not happen till 2017, which is some way off; so we may for the rest of 2016 almost feel that things are getting back to normal. If TMQ delays further into next year (eg because of complications with Parliament) then people may start to hope that Article 50 may never actually be activated and normalcy will grow.
UNCERTAINTY 2. But let's assume that TMQ does invoke Article 50 in 2017 and that this act appears irreversible, so that we will be out of the EU by 2019. Let's also assume that she indicates that she wants a pretty clean break with the EU which means leaving the SIngle Market. Uncertainty 1 will now have ended, but IMO it will be replaced by a much more serious and focused uncertainty about Britain's future capacity to trade with the world. Again, please everyone, Nick especially, do watch the Chatham House lecture, which discusses with great clarity the complications of the Brexit process and the problems involved in reconstructing our trading relations with the EU and with the rest of the world. You should be scared, I am!