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Scottish Devolution

...on serious topics that don't fit anywhere else at present.
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Altfish
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#141 Post by Altfish » December 18th, 2013, 10:37 pm

Latest post of the previous page:

Alan H wrote:
Altfish wrote:I'm still not sure what will actually happen if Scotland goes independent.
Don't worry - no body else does either. And that includes the politicians.
It does worry me that Salmond is saying one thing; Cameron another...I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle.

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Altfish
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#142 Post by Altfish » December 18th, 2013, 10:42 pm

The bookies are still predicting a resounding NO vote...

Skybet: NO 1/5: YES 10/3
Bet365: NO 1/7: YES 9/2
William Hill: NO 1/5: YES 7/2
Ladbrookes: NO 1/6: YES 4/1

....they usually are on the ball. Needs a big turn round if it is to happen.

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animist
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#143 Post by animist » December 19th, 2013, 9:44 am

Alan H wrote:
Altfish wrote:I'm still not sure what will actually happen if Scotland goes independent.
Don't worry - nobody else does either. And that includes the politicians.
which is surely an excellent reason to oppose the idea

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Dave B
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#144 Post by Dave B » December 19th, 2013, 10:06 am

Alan H wrote:
Altfish wrote:I'm still not sure what will actually happen if Scotland goes independent.
Don't worry - nobody else does either. And that includes the politicians.
There will be wailing and moaning and the gnashing of teeth. Plagues of boils and hives will break out. Strange portents will be seen in the sky . . . And the following day will be sunny with light winds.
"Look forward; yesterday was a lesson, if you did not learn from it you wasted it."
Me, 2015

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Alan H
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#145 Post by Alan H » December 19th, 2013, 10:16 am

Dave B wrote:And the following day will be sunny with light winds.
You're not talking abiut Scotland, then?

You may well be right - many things will sort themselves out, but I seriously doubt anyone really has the faintest idea what will happen. I suspect it's a decision that will be made by hearts not minds, a huge mess of uncertainty created and somehow we'll all muddle through. But with lawyers making the inevitable killing, of course, and politicians building empires.
Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

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Dave B
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#146 Post by Dave B » December 19th, 2013, 10:37 am

But with lawyers making the inevitable killing, of course, and politicians building empires.
Of course, that's what it's all really about I think.
"Look forward; yesterday was a lesson, if you did not learn from it you wasted it."
Me, 2015

Nick
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#147 Post by Nick » December 19th, 2013, 4:27 pm

Alan C. wrote:
That is certainly true, but the problem is that a very significant proportion of the GDP of Scotland the UK is directly linked to the (declining) oil and gas industries.
Fixed that for you Nick.
I think the proportion of Scotland's economy dependent on oil and gas is a lot greater than for the UK as a whole, but I'm willing to be corrected. :)
Does that extend to all the Euro legislation too....? :wink:
Yes.
Well, the SNP are planning to remain (or to rejoin) the EU, so you'll be out of luck there, Alan.
And will you be satisfied if it goes against you? :wink:
should that be the case we will consider retiring to Norway.
Just so long as you don't leave the forum... :D
I wish you would drop your obsession about oil and gas, England make more money from both than Scotland does.
I wasn't aware I was obsessive about oil and gas, but thanks for the warning.I'm als surprised by your claim that England makes more money from it than Scotland. Is it not after all, "Scotland's oil"? Or are you ignoring the extra money (per head) given to Scotland to spend?
I just think that Scotland will not replace their declining industries fast enough to avoid really severe economic problems in future
Me thinks you worry too much about the north :smile: We'll be fine :D
I hope I am wrong, but I fear I am not. Apart from your sunny optimism, what leads you to such a conclusion?
But if it doesn't work out we can all move to south of the border and take non paying zero hours jobs in poundland eh?
Scotland already has a declining population. The journey south is already one taken by many, many Scots.
I'll say again, it does seem to be mainly people living in England and Wales that are most against a yes vote and I'll ask again cos I didn't get an answer last time, why is that?
Actually, I think you are wrong. From what I have heard, the surveys say that the English are more in favour of independence than the Scots. Sadly, I think part of the reason for that is that they think that "if the ungrateful bastards think they can do without England, then let them try, and we'll keep the money we send north, thanks".

Nick
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#148 Post by Nick » December 19th, 2013, 4:46 pm

Altfish wrote:I'm still not sure what will actually happen if Scotland goes independent.
Yes, that's a big question! So far, Salmond seems to be just dangling carrots in front of Scots, with extra spending.
e.g.
Will they have an embassy in London?
If they are a seperate country, then yes,
What happens to BBC?
It will be divided in two, and Scotland will have to pay for all the imported programmes from England, instead of sharing them.
Passports? If I go to France I show it, but if I go France to Belgium I don't.
I would expect that there would be some sort of "mini-Shengen", so passports will not be required.
They plan to stick with the pound (I think) but won't they risk getting into a Spain/Greece scenario with the Euro; ie they could do with it being devalued against the stronger currencies. If London booms, Scotland could find exchange rates with Euro/dollar that don't suit.
There's some argument about whether they would be obliged to join the Euro if the have to re-apply for EU membership (though I think they'd fudge it somehow). Also, I think you are right to be concerned that Scotland would have no ability to devalue against sterling, but have no voice in making the decisions over its interest rates and other matters. That is a huge part of the problem for the Club Med countries. IMO, the UK represents an optimum currency area, as besides a voice at the table, the UK is also prepared to make financial transfers from one part of the UK to another. Unlike Germany to Greece.
Trains: I assume Virgin and the like keep running to Glasgow
Yes; trains run across Europe.
Newspapers, ok some already have Scottish versions, but Guardian/Independent don't, I'm sure there are more.
You can buy foreign newspapers if you want to. :)
What happens with Europe, are Scotland going to have to apply to join EU?
Yes or No, depending on who you ask!
Is there a date for when independence happens?
I think there is one in Salmond's bill, but I can't remember when...
I assume there must be as all Scottish MPs and Lords will have to clear off from Westminster
Indeed.

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Altfish
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#149 Post by Altfish » December 19th, 2013, 8:14 pm

Just thought of another question.

The UK has a massive national debt; I assume Scotland will get lumbered by a good proportion of that and have to take it with them. After all the Royal Bank of Scotland caused many of the financial problems.

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getreal
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#150 Post by getreal » December 19th, 2013, 10:17 pm

Altfish wrote:Just thought of another question.

The UK has a massive national debt; I assume Scotland will get lumbered by a good proportion of that and have to take it with them. After all the Royal Bank of Scotland caused many of the financial problems.

Yes. Scotland will inherit some of the debt.
"It's hard to put a leash on a dog once you've put a crown on his head"-Tyrion Lannister.

Nick
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#151 Post by Nick » December 20th, 2013, 1:09 pm

IIRC, not so many years ago, Salmond was talking about forging a dynamic financial powerhouse with Iceland...... :wink:

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Dave B
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#152 Post by Dave B » December 20th, 2013, 1:10 pm

Nick wrote:IIRC, not so many years ago, Salmond was talking about forging a dynamic financial powerhouse with Iceland...... :wink:
You mean just like every other politician jumps on a band wagon without checking how many wheels it has?
"Look forward; yesterday was a lesson, if you did not learn from it you wasted it."
Me, 2015

Fia
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#153 Post by Fia » December 20th, 2013, 1:57 pm

Iceland: the country that actually jailed its corrupt bankers, and looked after the population. I'd be happy to be associated with them :D

Nick
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#154 Post by Nick » December 21st, 2013, 12:31 pm

Fia wrote:Iceland: the country that actually jailed its corrupt bankers, and looked after the population. I'd be happy to be associated with them :D
If charges can be brought against British bankers, then they should be prosecuted. Unfortunately, it seems that the causes of the credit crunch had more to do with government policy, US as well as British. Should we jail Messrs Brown and Balls....?

Gottard
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#155 Post by Gottard » December 21st, 2013, 1:24 pm

Nick wrote:
Fia wrote:Iceland: the country that actually jailed its corrupt bankers, and looked after the population. I'd be happy to be associated with them :D
If charges can be brought against British bankers, then they should be prosecuted. Unfortunately, it seems that the causes of the credit crunch had more to do with government policy, US as well as British. Should we jail Messrs Brown and Balls....?
The difference being that politicians have an objective (political) sin while corrupt bankers have subjective/factual sins. :wink:
The only thing I fear of death is regret if I couldn’t complete my learning experience

Fia
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#156 Post by Fia » December 21st, 2013, 1:41 pm

crossposting...
Nick wrote: If charges can be brought against British bankers, then they should be prosecuted.
There seems no political will to do so and anyway, many of the grubby bastards have taken their eyewateringly massive golden handshakes and early retirement bonuses and are now living in the lap of luxury. In what way can that be right?

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Re: Scottish Devolution

#157 Post by Nick » December 23rd, 2013, 2:30 pm

Fia wrote:Iceland: the country that actually jailed its corrupt bankers, and looked after the population. I'd be happy to be associated with them :D
The bankers in Iceland were jailed for the illegal act of lending money to a takeover company to buy their own shares.

Perhaps Fred the Shred's greatest blunder was to take over ABN/AMRO at an overlarge price. But he was supported by over 90% of the shareholders. Aside from that was the hugely increased gearing in banking operations, sanctioned by the Labour government, presided over by Messrs. Brown, Balls, and Milliband. If there is any illegality in the conduct of the banks, then go ahead and prosecute them. But a little investigation will lead to the inevitable conclusion that the crunch was ultimately the fault of governments across the developed world, especially in the US and the Euro area.

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Re: Scottish Devolution

#158 Post by Nick » December 23rd, 2013, 2:38 pm

But back to devolution. I spent a fascinating hour watching the introduction of the devolution white paper in the Scottish Parliament (on the Parliament channel).

In summation, the SNP have a few points: kick London for straight-forward political reasons, increase spending and imagine that somehow the Scottish economy is somehow magically going to grow to pay for it. It's that last point they haven't justified.

Having explained that they want to keep all the spending goodies, and killing off significant portions of their economy involved in defence, they then compared themselves to Norway and their £400 billion sovereign wealth fund. Norway are obliged to hold such a huge fund, otherwise their currency would rise significantly, thereby destabilising their economy. Tragically, the SNP have no plans, scope or even possibility of creating such a fund. They may be right in criticing previous governments for not having created such a fund, but they have shown no idea of how to achieve one now, when all their plans involve more and more spending.

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Lifelinking
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#159 Post by Lifelinking » December 27th, 2013, 2:35 pm

Cutting through the 'this will happen' 'no it won't that will happen' argy-bargy for a moment, may I make the point that this Yes voter will be doing so primarily because I want a better, more representative, more accountable and where possible more participative form of democracy.

I submit that this will not just be good (very good) for Scotland but for the rest of the current UK too.

Rowena Mason wrote an interesting piece in the Guardian yesterday about how much people have become disengaged from the political process. This disengagement is symptomatic of the fact that our democratic processes need a right bloody-good shake up. The status quo, my dear friends, is one not worthy of preservation. I believe that a majority Yes vote can be the best first step in a much needed process of reform for everyone on this island.

Hogmanay 2016 will I earnestly hope, be our first one as a truly and fully democratic Independent Scotland. I serve advance notice that you will ALL be invited to the party.

Love, peace and Kindest regards to all.
"Who thinks the law has anything to do with justice? It's what we have because we can't have justice."
William McIlvanney

lewist
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#160 Post by lewist » December 27th, 2013, 9:46 pm

Nick wrote:But back to devolution.
I know the OP is 'Devolution' but the thread is really about independence at least, and for some of us it is about freedom.

Life! I like the way you talk. Let's hope the party happens.
Carpe diem. Savour every moment.

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Lifelinking
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Re: Scottish Devolution

#161 Post by Lifelinking » December 28th, 2013, 1:49 am

I agree Lewist, the later posts about the referendum might better be split to a separate thread about Independence. I very much hope we can bring that New Year in a newly remade country and will in my own small way be working towards that end.
"Who thinks the law has anything to do with justice? It's what we have because we can't have justice."
William McIlvanney

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