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Global Warming

Any topic related to science can be discussed here.
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Global warming is

Being driven by human activity
18
46%
Part of a natural cycle
1
3%
Part of a natural cycle but expedited by human activity
20
51%
Undecided
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 39

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DougS
Posts: 737
Joined: July 4th, 2007, 9:48 am

Global Warming

#1 Post by DougS » August 12th, 2007, 6:07 pm

Please vote in this straw poll, which I saw on another site and was shocked by the result. I'd like to see if the result here is much different.

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Alan C.
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#2 Post by Alan C. » August 12th, 2007, 6:48 pm

I didn't vote because I think it's part of a natural cycle, but I also think we are bringing it on quicker/earlier than it should be.
Abstinence Makes the Church Grow Fondlers.

DougS
Posts: 737
Joined: July 4th, 2007, 9:48 am

#3 Post by DougS » August 12th, 2007, 7:34 pm

I've amended the poll to incorporate your view, Alan.

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Lifelinking
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#4 Post by Lifelinking » August 12th, 2007, 7:51 pm

I voted 'being driven by human activity'.

http://environment.newscientist.com/cha ... te-change/


L
"Who thinks the law has anything to do with justice? It's what we have because we can't have justice."
William McIlvanney

Bud
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Joined: July 7th, 2007, 4:22 am

#5 Post by Bud » August 13th, 2007, 3:57 pm

No one with an ounce of knowledge about general climateology or the greenhouse effect can deny it's likely most global warming is caused by humans.

I've had numerous arguments with my dad (who works in the coal industry) about this. But picking little snippets of data from denialist blogs in an attempt to create doubt is not science.

We are affecting the planet's climate. For chrissakes, deal with it.

Bud
Posts: 46
Joined: July 7th, 2007, 4:22 am

#6 Post by Bud » August 14th, 2007, 3:48 pm

Apologies if the above post was a bit aggressive. Just that this issue gets me wound up more than most.
Alan C. wrote:I didn't vote because I think it's part of a natural cycle, but I also think we are bringing it on quicker/earlier than it should be.
Could you explain the reasoning behind choosing this option? Because to me, that point is redundant. Everyone knows that climate changes naturally, has done so throughout history, and will continue to do so. There are just too many varying factors and feedback effects affecting climate for it to be stable.

Thus, if we are bringing climate change around quicker than it ought to, then warming is by definition anthropogenic. Why did you need that qualifier?

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Alan C.
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#7 Post by Alan C. » August 14th, 2007, 5:06 pm

From what I have read on the subject, (I am no scientist) and to put it simplistically.
I think the climate change that would occur over a period of about 100,000 years, and maybe give all forms of life on earth time to adapt, has been accelerated so as to come about, over a period of about 10,000 years, thus not giving evolution enough time to cope with the changes.
This is a good lecture on the subject, from TED talks, I8 minutes long.
Abstinence Makes the Church Grow Fondlers.

Bud
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Joined: July 7th, 2007, 4:22 am

#8 Post by Bud » August 14th, 2007, 6:28 pm

10,000 years? APG can be measured closer to around seventy. Initially mitigated by sulfate aerosols, so we are looking more from thirty years ago when the temp started to rise seriously.

The effects we are having on the climate are showing up much quicker than any natural effects could be.

Thomas
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Joined: July 21st, 2007, 3:54 pm

#9 Post by Thomas » August 20th, 2007, 12:20 pm

It's quite simple:

CO2 retains heat and we're pumping billions of tons into the sky.

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Alan C.
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#10 Post by Alan C. » November 14th, 2007, 9:46 pm

I've just watched this TED talk on global warming, and thought others here might find it interesting.
It only lasts 16 minutes, Environmental scientist David Keith talks about a cheap, effective, shocking solution to climate change:
Abstinence Makes the Church Grow Fondlers.

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Alan H
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#11 Post by Alan H » November 14th, 2007, 10:47 pm

Fascinating! If he is right - and he freely admits that he may not be entirely right - then it could be a good solution to the problem. That's what I like - a good Engineering solution: simple and cheap!

Phaedo
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#12 Post by Phaedo » November 15th, 2007, 12:57 pm

David Keith's talk is certainly interesting. He is obviously in no doubt about the causes of global warming as he says it is important to talk about various ways of dealing with it. Having spent 34 years working in meterology, not climatology, but sufficently related to have at least a rudimentary understanding of the principles involved I have no doubt that human intervention is the principal contributing factor by a huge degree.
To digress a bit though, I find the taking of polls on subjects such as this has little value because the majority of the public are not sufficently well informed to make a value judgement. Taking a democratic vote on a scientific subject will merely reflect the level to which populist mis/disinformation has permeated the public consciousness.
Virtually on a daily basis we read demands for a referendum on this or a referendum on that from political opposition parties because they know that the media will always back their calls because it makes good tabloid press.
There seems to be a climate(I use the word advisedly) of 'Don't trust the experts' being sponsored by the media yet if you look seriously, the experts' opinion is normally mainstream scientific opinion which has been validated by peer review and nearly always turns out to be right. The occasional exceptions get blazing headlines which in turn plays into the hands of the doubters.
A question to ask when a dissenting voice is heard, at odds with mainstream opinion, is 'cui bono?' (who gains?) and to return to the original topic, in this case the hydrocarbon fuel industry and its poodle in the White House, closely followed by the developing economies of China and India. No wonder the media are seeded with contra global warming propaganda.
True lovers of knowledge are temperate and brave...
Socrates

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Alan H
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#13 Post by Alan H » November 15th, 2007, 10:02 pm

Phaedo wrote:Taking a democratic vote on a scientific subject will merely reflect the level to which populist mis/disinformation has permeated the public consciousness.
Yes, and as someone said recently, science itself is not democratic.
There seems to be a climate(I use the word advisedly) of 'Don't trust the experts' being sponsored by the media yet if you look seriously, the experts' opinion is normally mainstream scientific opinion which has been validated by peer review and nearly always turns out to be right. The occasional exceptions get blazing headlines which in turn plays into the hands of the doubters.
The (usually ignorant) media seem to assume that because there might be two differing opinions on any subject that the probability of each being correct is 50%. All the media are after is confrontation - they rarely seem interested in consensus.

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Emma Woolgatherer
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Re: Global Warming

#14 Post by Emma Woolgatherer » July 16th, 2008, 9:25 pm

Has anyone read the article in today's Guardian, "Many Tory MPs still sceptical on climate change"?
The survey was carried out by the polling organisation ComRes for the Local Government Association (LGA). It wrote to MPs and asked: "Do you believe that climate change is happening and can be directly attributed to greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activity?"

Of the 55 Conservative MPs who replied, 10 said no, while eight that they didn't know. Some 80 of the 91 Labour MPs who responded said yes, together with 15 of the 17 Liberal Democrats. Overall, 168 MPs replied to the poll, 32 of whom answered no or don't know.

Tony Juniper, head of Friends of the Earth, said the survey results were "disturbing". He said: "That a fifth of MPs say they either don't know or reject the science of climate change is a serious cause for alarm and suggests that many of them are seriously out of touch, because the science is very clear.
Emma

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Alan C.
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Re: Global Warming

#15 Post by Alan C. » July 16th, 2008, 11:15 pm

That a fifth of MPs say they either don't know or reject the science of climate change is a serious cause for alarm and suggests that many of them are seriously out of touch,
Sorry to go off topic, but it's not only climate change that they are out of touch on, they have made a very big deal today, about postponing the 2p rise in fuel tax that was due to be implemented in October.
The government is raking in £millions in extra revenue due to the high price of oil (via the tax system) this 2p rise would have been a drop in the ocean in comparison, by saying they will now postpone it, I think amounts to taking the piss! The tax on fuel should be adjusted on a monthly basis, so that the exchequer gets more or less the same income from fuel tax regardless of the price of oil, I don't know how clear (or not, I've made that)
When the price of fuel is high, the chancelor could reduce the percentage of tax and still get the same return, if the price goes down :laughter: he could then increase the tax and so keep the the same level of income, it's not difficult!
This coming winter it's going to cost us around £100 a week just to heat the house and provide hot water, due to the ridiculous price of heating oil which has just gone through the roof, if diesel had increased at the same rate as heatng oil over the last 12 months, I would now be paying around £7 a litre to run my car! Diesel here is now £1.48.9 a litre...............Yes I am angry!
Abstinence Makes the Church Grow Fondlers.

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tom
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Re: Global Warming

#16 Post by tom » July 25th, 2008, 12:56 pm

Very good TED talk. Thanks Alan C.

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