In or out?

[Alan H]

Latest post of the previous page:

Oops! Looks like another EU deal our merry band of Brexiteers will need to negotiate: EU and Japan set to agree trade deal after talks progress

Europe and Japan have been discussing a trade pact since 2013, coming close to a deal last December before the talks lost momentum.

A deal would slash European tariffs on Japanese cars and parts, opening new markets for the likes of Toyota, and potentially affecting the competitiveness of British car factories following Brexit.

In return, Japan would cut its tariffs on food, opening up lucrative markets for European farmers to sell products such as cheese and meat.

[Alan H]

Poll finds that 60% of Britons want to keep their EU citizenship

[animist]

Poll finds that 60% of Britons want to keep their EU citizenship

well, Alan, maybe this is a lost cause, however deplorable it is. I get the impression that Europe has already adjusted to our leaving, as evidenced below. And surely, once the EU gets some exit fee from Britain (of course, hopefully, the whole Brexit project might still collapse over failure to find an agreed amount) then we are toast as far as they are concerned. So the second referendum which the Lib Dems sensibly campaigned for may well be irrelevant by the time it happens, if indeed it does.
https://newsstand.google.com/articles/C ... L-3CTCtyxU

[Alan H]

Succinctly put by David Allen Green: Three things about Brexit

Since the referendum vote last summer for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union, three things have become apparent.

First, Brexit will be complex, not simple.

Second, the UK government is not (or is not currently) equal to the task of Brexit.

Third, regardless of the difficulties, the UK government is in any case making it worse for itself, to the extent it seems almost that it is self-sabotaging the whole process.

I do not claim any originality for these three insights; I just wanted to jot them down here, in one place.

[Alan H]

The Brexit no-one wanted

This does raise the question: Will Brexit be Brexit enough?

If we end up somewhere in the SM, and/or somewhere in the CU, and/or have some measure of free movement of people, and/or some measure of being under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, is that a 'good enough' Brexit?

The people voted to leave, remember...

[animist]

Alan, have you seen these IoG guides? They go into mindboggling detail about the uncertainties ahead:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org. ... ing-brexit

One specific point is that the "Dublin case" you've mentioned, relating to a possible revocation of Article 50, seems to have been discontinued

[Alan H]

Alan, have you seen these IoG guides? They go into mindboggling detail about the uncertainties ahead:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org. ... ing-brexit

Yes, I've read some of them. Just shows we were lied to on this as well: "it'll be easy", "We can leave the day after tomorrow", "We'll have free trade deals agreed in a few weeks/months" is what we were told be Brexiters. More fucking lies.

One specific point is that the "Dublin case" you've mentioned, relating to a possible revocation of Article 50, seems to have been discontinued

Yes, unfortunately. However, many in the EU have said that they would welcome us back if we changed our mind - I'm sure a bit of political will is all that would be required.

[Alan H]

Brexit: Remain would win if new EU referendum vote were held tomorrow, poll finds

The outcome of the Brexit referendum would be reversed if it was held tomorrow, a poll suggests.

The Survation survey showed a clear majority of Britons (54 per cent) would vote to Remain in the European Union if another referendum was held, while 46 per cent would back Brexit.

As Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom signalled a more consultative approach, the Survation survey also showed just over half want a cross-party coalition of parties to negotiate the UK's exit from the EU, compared to less than a third who think it should fall to the Tory minority Government alone.

Theresa May found herself ahead of Jeremy Corbyn on which leader voters trust more to negotiate the best deal, at 51 per cent to 35 per cent respectively.

However, a majority said the best outcome would be to stop exit talks altogether and work to stay in the EU, while around a third backed paying a fee for access to the tariff-free customs union.

Less than a quarter support the Government's current strategy of leaving the customs union in order to strike free trade deals with other countries, as Labour signalled its strongest backing for staying in the bloc yet.

[animist]

One specific point is that the "Dublin case" you've mentioned, relating to a possible revocation of Article 50, seems to have been discontinued

Yes, unfortunately. However, many in the EU have said that they would welcome us back if we changed our mind - I'm sure a bit of political will is all that would be required.

umm, I suppose I think that you are being optimistic here. I think that in a year or so, this country will be in chaos as the 2019 deadline approaches (of course, there could for all be I know be a Liberal Democrat-led government here by then - hope springs eternal etc etc). I honestly don't think that the EU has the will/desire/time/propensity - whatever you want to call it - to go on dealing with this stupid country, and instead it will accept some degree of hit, plus which it will do its best to attract whatever business it can from Britain to the other 27

[Alan H]

umm, I suppose I think that you are being optimistic here. I think that in a year or so, this country will be in chaos as the 2019 deadline approaches (of course, there could for all be I know be a Liberal Democrat-led government here by then - hope springs eternal etc etc). I honestly don't think that the EU has the will/desire/time/propensity - whatever you want to call it - to go on dealing with this fucking stupid country, and instead it will accept some degree of hit, plus which it will do its best to attract whatever business it can from Britain to the 27

I agree that many will be sick to the back teeth of the UK's continual griping and demanding special treatment... It will be too late for some industries and services - the ones that have already committed to moving out of the UK: even if we don't leave, if they have made the decision to look elsewhere or have committed to it, why would they stay in a country that might make the same stupid mistake in the future?

[Alan H]

If you think we need to 'take back control' of our borders, you don't understand what that actually means

There are more subtle confusions. Freedom of movement is sometimes, erroneously, cited in relation to terrorists crossing EU borders without checks. And on the Remain side, many seem to believe the UK leaving the customs union will inevitably result in passport controls for residents on either side of the Irish border.

The fact is that we do already control our borders, in that we monitor our sea crossings, airports, the Channel Tunnel and that we impose passport controls on arrivals from every other country (except Ireland).

Freedom of movement is a specific right for EU passport holders to move around the bloc to take up work in any country. And there are actually limits on it. People can be refused admittance on security grounds. They can also legally be required to leave after three months if they do not have a job or fulfill other conditions such as being able to support themselves financially.

Yet with the exception of homeless EU migrants, these control powers have never been exercised by the Home Office, even when Theresa May was in charge of it. And that’s because the Home Office (unlike, for instance, Belgium) failed to invest in an EU migrant worker registration system.

The Brexit economic stakes are high indeed. Leaving the single market and the customs union will impose a severe economic toll on British living standards in the years ahead. What a disgrace it would be if we were bundled down this road thanks to a basic misunderstanding about the meaning of the words “border control”.

[Zeff]

A fresh [UK, not Eire] poll from Survation puts the result at 54 per cent for remaining if the referendum on membership of the EU took place today, versus 46 per cent voting to leave. That's a swing from the closely run result last year, when 51.9 per cent wanted to leave the EU and 48.1 per cent wanted to remain.
From the same source...
http://www.cityam.co...-term-interests
Given that Irish trade with the UK is worth €1.2bn per week, Brexit risks "massively damaging the economic relationship" between the two countries under the current EU customs system, [Ray Bassett] said. Industries that are at particular risk include Ireland's fishing industry and its thoroughbred horse industry.
"Therefore, given the circumstances, Irexit has to be the option for Ireland in a hard Brexit situation," Bassett* said.
Unquote. *Former Irish diplomat occasional political commentator and lecturer on Conflict resolution.

It is not just peace in Northern Ireland that is being questioned. The economy of the Republic of Ireland (ROI or Eire) will be harmed if the UK leaves the EU's Customs Union. For certain industries, the UK's access to the Single Market can be important too. It isn't impossible that Brexit (if it happens) will lead to Irexit.

[Alan H]

This Brexit thing is all going tickety-boo, isn't it? Sumitomo Mitsui Chooses Frankfurt for EU Base Following Brexit

[Alan H]

This Be The Tories

(With apologies to Philip Larkin)

They fuck you up, the bloody Tories.
They really mean to; and they do.
They fill you with lies and stories
And add some extra, just for you.

But they don’t fuck us all; just some
Just the poor, unlucky and disabled.
All of those who support ‘em
Are courted, banked and ennobled.

But now they fuck us all again.
They cry “Brexit means Brexit!”
For us it means a future of pain,
And for our kids it wrecks it.

[Alan H]

Brexit Minister filmed spouting ultra-Hard Brexit ‘nonsense’ and calling for the EU to be ‘torn down’

A new Brexit Minister called for the European Union to be “torn down” in a speech to a right-wing think tank.

Steve Baker told the Libertarian Alliance: “I think UKIP and the Better Off Out campaign lack ambition. I think the European Union needs to be wholly torn down.”

He added that the EU was an “obstacle” to world peace and “incompatible” with a free society.

The outburst, made in 2010, will raise serious questions about Theresa May’s judgement in appointing Baker and could prove embarrassing during negotiations.

One fellow Tory Leaver told The New European: “I want out of the EU – but to suggest it has been an obstacle to world peace is nonsense of the highest order.

“What we should be trying to negotiate is a sensible Brexit that works for both parties. This kind of rhetoric will not go down well in Brussels and beyond.”

He doesn't appear to have explained what a 'sensible Brexit' actually is.

[animist]

Brexit Minister filmed spouting ultra-Hard Brexit ‘nonsense’ and calling for the EU to be ‘torn down’

A new Brexit Minister called for the European Union to be “torn down” in a speech to a right-wing think tank.

Steve Baker told the Libertarian Alliance: “I think UKIP and the Better Off Out campaign lack ambition. I think the European Union needs to be wholly torn down.”

He added that the EU was an “obstacle” to world peace and “incompatible” with a free society.

The outburst, made in 2010, will raise serious questions about Theresa May’s judgement in appointing Baker and could prove embarrassing during negotiations.

One fellow Tory Leaver told The New European: “I want out of the EU – but to suggest it has been an obstacle to world peace is nonsense of the highest order.

“What we should be trying to negotiate is a sensible Brexit that works for both parties. This kind of rhetoric will not go down well in Brussels and beyond.”

He doesn't appear to have explained what a 'sensible Brexit' actually is.

well, maybe you're expecting too much, Alan . As a fellow Brexit junkie, you might want to read/may have read "All Out War" by Tim Shipman, which is a detailed account of the Brexit campaign up to the referendum. Lamentably, there is no index! But I remembered the name Steve Baker, a very interesting specimen of youthful libertarian hubris who as Wycombe MP features quite a bit in the saga
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Baker_(politician)

[Alan H]

Their Brexit delusions could yet destroy the Tories

The Brexit crunch is here. Ministers from DExEU, the new Brexit department, trying to bite the promised cake find their teeth breaking on the concrete hard choices. Theresa May’s red lines, her adamantine insistence on total immigration control with no European court of justice oversight, makes the department’s job impossible on single market and customs union access. So James Chapman, the Daily Mail journalist who was previously David Davis’s chief of staff, told Radio 4 on Saturday. There are no cakes, only rocks and hard places. Sticking to her red lines really does mean losing free access for our trade, and the 60% of our exports that go either to the EU or to 45 other countries with EU trade deals. It means lorries paying tariffs backed up around the M25 to Watford.

ecall what Brexiteers said during the referendum campaign. Daniel Hannan MEP said: “Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market.” Matthew Elliott, of the leave campaign, offered the Norwegian, EEA option that his Brexiteers now see as betrayal. Extremist Owen Paterson used to say: “Only a madman would actually leave the market.” Well, that’s what they are.

The Sunday Telegraph reports a senior Downing Street briefer telling industry and City leaders to prepare for her to walk out of negotiations in September if the exit fee is too high. “We are looking to be hard-nosed and hard-headed” for “domestic consumption”. At the end of this road, brave choices will have to be faced: crash the economy or tell Brexit voters unpalatable truths about necessary compromise. She shows no sign of that courage.

[animist]

A fresh [UK, not Eire] poll from Survation puts the result at 54 per cent for remaining if the referendum on membership of the EU took place today, versus 46 per cent voting to leave. That's a swing from the closely run result last year, when 51.9 per cent wanted to leave the EU and 48.1 per cent wanted to remain.
From the same source...
http://www.cityam.co...-term-interests
Given that Irish trade with the UK is worth €1.2bn per week, Brexit risks "massively damaging the economic relationship" between the two countries under the current EU customs system, [Ray Bassett] said. Industries that are at particular risk include Ireland's fishing industry and its thoroughbred horse industry.
"Therefore, given the circumstances, Irexit has to be the option for Ireland in a hard Brexit situation," Bassett* said.
Unquote. *Former Irish diplomat occasional political commentator and lecturer on Conflict resolution.

It is not just peace in Northern Ireland that is being questioned. The economy of the Republic of Ireland (ROI or Eire) will be harmed if the UK leaves the EU's Customs Union. For certain industries, the UK's access to the Single Market can be important too. It isn't impossible that Brexit (if it happens) will lead to Irexit.

Irexit may be an option but is it likely? http://www.thejournal.ie/ireland-britai ... 2-Jul2016/

[Alan H]

Sleep with the fishes: Gove's first move raises alarm over UK hard Brexit strategy

"It's the pointy end of statehood - territory, borders, maps and so on," Driscoll says. "In an age of perceived state decline, it allows you to say: 'This is the state, a pure red line.' It goes really well with the British nostalgia for empire right now. The Tories are desperate for a Brexit win and this allows them to say they've taken back control of something."

But if Gove's move really does suggests a red-line policy on fishing, there will be terrible damage to the environment and Britain's fishing industry.

There are basically three options for post-Brexit fishing. At the soft end, you could try to stay in or replicate the Common Fisheries Policy. The middle ground would entail leaving the policy but entering the bilateral negotiations Norway has with the EU. And the hard end would involve cutting ourselves off from the European system altogether.

Almost no-one is talking about the soft version, but it is not impossible that that is where we will end up. Fishing is small fry, a tiny subplot of a huge negotiation in which those industries which bring in the most cash - like financial services or car manufacturing - will be prioritised. Right now, fishing is the mascot of the Brexit campaign. But at the business end of free trade agreement negotiation - probably during transition sometime after 2019 - it is more likely to be treated as a pawn, sacrificed to save the queen. The sheer amount of work that is required to sort out a fishing system outside the EU is completely disproportionate to its size. It's possible ministers would take the easy way out and adopt a form of associate membership which would keep the UK in the Commons Fisheries Policy.

[Alan H]

I'm not quite sure what to make of this and I suspect it's totally irrelevant in many respects, but: “In some possible branches of the future leaving will be an error” – an exchange about Brexit with Dominic Cummings

I suspect Cummings is right about Brexit being seen as just the start to 'radically reforming the British state' and I suspect May's threat of a low rights, little Government, low regulation, tax haven is but a small glimpse of that Tory imagined future. Frightening.

[Alan H]

Hard Brexit 'means people fleeing UK', Jeremy Hunt note says